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Just before the 2019 Polls… a Forecast!

It is no news that Nigerians will head to the polls tomorrow, February 16, 2019, to vote in their candidates for the posts of president, vice president and federal representatives at the national assembly.

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had earlier in January 2019 published the final voters register for the 2019 elections, ending with 84,004,084 voters, indicating a 25% growth from 2015 ( 67,422,00) in number of registered voters. The SS, NC and SW zones showed the largest gains in registered voter numbers.

Just before the polls, a final vote forecast is projected on the following:

1. Registered voters data per INEC’s Voter Register.
2. Average voter turnout down to 39% from 47% in 2015 and 57% in 2011.
3. Historical voting pattern remains largely sustained except for few states with significant disruptive factors.
4. Public sentiment, party campaigns and intuitive subjectivity.
5. Forecast excludes invalid/cancelled votes which historically account for up to 7% of votes cast.

This projection is by no means the final result and cannot be interpreted as such.

Forecast Verdict: A majority victory for APC in the presidential elections with 16.3 million over PDP 14.8 million votes. Total win in 24 (of 37, including FCT) States with >25% win in 27 States.

Source analysis sheet available here for your cross comparisons and counter projections