Nigeria’s 2015 presidential elections are due to hold in a couple of days, barring any last minute changes to the rescheduled date, March 28. The poll was initially scheduled for February 14 but deferred due to ‘security concerns’, as stated by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). The postponement was not a welcome development to the All Progressives Congress (APC), the country’s strongest opposition political party, considering the massive momentum and traction gathered ahead of the planned February 14 date. The ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) on the other hand appeared to be in sync with the decision to reschedule. Popular public opinion holds that if the elections had been held as initially planned, the APC would have come out victorious, perhaps inching towards a landslide. This impression was further alluded to by the likes of Dr. Frederick Fasehun, leader of the Oodua People’s Congress (OPC), in a speech delivered at a post-national conference forum on March 20.
The six weeks of postponement have afforded the ruling party a little more time to ramp up its campaign efforts, with a reported unrestricted flow of cash incentives to party loyalists and the public at large in a bid to secure sufficient votes to return the incumbent president, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, to power. Public impression was that APC momentum had burned out, its campaign funds exhausted, to the extent that even campaign jingles via traditional media were few and far between compared with the PDP’s which appeared to have been heightened. Town hall meetings also became a major channel employed by both parties, reaching out to multiple voting segments.
Several conspiracy theories characterized the six week waiting period, chief of which was the alleged plan of the PDP to ensure that Prof Jega, the electoral body chairman, was removed from office via terminal leave on or before March 28. Three days to the elections, Prof Jega still remains the INEC chairman. Likewise, there was the war against the use of PVC’s and card readers, considering that INEC only decided to run a public sample test post February 14. The tenacity and commitment of INEC and its stakeholders met this opposition effectively, restoring public confidence in the use of PVC’s and Card readers as part of anti-electoral fraud initiatives. INEC continued to progress distribution of PVC’s to eligible voters and to date has recorded an approximate 82% PVC collection rate. This assumes that out of 68.8 million registered voters per 2015 Voters Register, 56.4 million have received their permanent voter cards.
The success of the military in its onslaught against insurgency in the North East has told its own story so far. Regardless, there are still major concerns surrounding the seeming ‘strategic’ timing of this recent wave – “why wait to do in 6 weeks what should have been done over 6 years?”
With the 6 week waiting period almost exhausted, it is natural to expect to see a shift in focus from conspiracy theories to election result forecasting on several bases and assumptions. Leveraging data from INEC’s Voter Register per geopolitical zone, assuming historic voting patterns adjusted to reflect current political sway, an average of 65% voter turnout in each State, admitting the influence of incumbent governors on their states, ongoing public response to party campaigns, and intuitive subjectivity, the table below presents an individual forecast of what may be expected. It is by no means the final result and cannot be so interpreted. Rather, it is a prediction anticipating several cross comparisons. This forecast predicts a majority victory for the APC in the presidential elections with 18.4 million over PDP 17.0 million votes.
For cross comparisons, share your forecast here
In case you missed it, the President’s May 29 speech is as below:
I greet and felicitate with you all, today, as we mark 15 years of uninterrupted democratic governance in our beloved country.
Our dear nation, Nigeria, has certainly come a long way and made notable progress since our first Democracy Day on May 29, 1999 when the military finally relinquished power and handed over to a democratically-elected government, marking the true beginning of a government of the people, by the people, for the people.”
Although I have ordered a low-key commemoration of this year’s Democracy Day in deference to the current mood of the nation, there can be no doubt that the past 15 years, the longest period of sustained democratic governance in our country, have been a blessing to us, as a people.
As we commemorate 15 years of our Fourth Republic today therefore, I believe that it is fitting that we pay tribute once again to all those who played a part in restoring our nation to the true path of democratic governance, built on the foundations of rule of law and freedom of expression.
As a result of our collective efforts since 1999, democratic governance is now entrenched in our nation and institutions. I wholeheartedly believe that our people are the better for it. The scope of fundamental rights and liberties enjoyed by our people over the past 15 years has been expanded beyond measure.
On my watch, we have witnessed high national economic growth rates, steady improvements and expansion of national infrastructure including airports and roads, the restoration of rail transportation, the efficient implementation of a roadmap for improved power supply, a revolutionary approach to agricultural production, as well as advances in education, sports, youth development, healthcare delivery, housing, water supply and other social services.
In the oil and gas sector, our promotion of a sustainable local content policy, continues to guarantee equity and better opportunities for Nigerian entrepreneurs and skilled personnel.
Significant increase in mobile telephone and national broadband penetration, making Information and Communications Technology (ICT) one of the fastest growing sectors of the Nigerian economy. We have also developed strong financial markets and regulatory institutions. Our banks now have regional and global footprints.
Nigeria has also gained recognition as the largest economy in Africa, the most preferred investment destination in the continent and in terms of returns on investment, the fourth in the world. We are pleased that the world has noticed, as global leaders converged in Abuja early this month for the World Economic Forum in Africa.
The event not only witnessed a record attendance, it brought the prospect of an additional flow of investment into the Nigerian economy estimated at over $68 billion over the next few years.
In foreign relations, our country has equally done well within this period, by establishing and strengthening strong partnerships with all ECOWAS countries and the rest of the world. This has helped to deepen Nigeria’s leadership role in multilateral institutions including the United Nations.
Furthermore, under this administration, we have made consistent progress in improving the standard of elections in our country to ensure that they are ever more credible and truly representative of the people’s free choice. The National Conference we initiated to deliberate and make recommendations on the best ways of resolving our current political and socio-economic challenges is on-going. It is our expectation that its outcomes will help to further consolidate the gains we have made from democracy in the past 15 years, and place our dear nation even more firmly on the path to greatness.
It is a sad fact that as I address you today, all the gains of the past 15 years of democratic governance in our country are threatened by the presence of international terrorism on our shores. Our dear country, Nigeria is facing a new challenge. A war has been unleashed on us. Extremist foreign elements, collaborating with some of our misguided citizens, are focused on an attempt to bring down our country and the democracy and freedom we cherish and celebrate today.
The despicable abduction of school girls from Chibok in Borno State has brought to the awareness of the entire world, the heartless brutality of these terrorists who want to instigate a descent into anarchy and balkanize our nation.
In recent years, terrorist attacks have claimed the lives of several of our compatriots, many have been injured or maimed, whole villages and communities have been destroyed and the economy of some of our states is in jeopardy.
There can be no doubt that what we are witnessing in Nigeria today is a manifestation of the same warped and ferocious world view that brought down the Twin Towers in New York, killed innocent persons in Boston and led to the murder of defenceless people in the Southern Russian city of Volgograd. Terrorist activities have brought war and pains to Mali, Somalia, Yemen, Syria, Afghanistan and Pakistan. These agents of evil continue to brainwash and incite ignorant young men and women to attack the innocent. We cannot allow this to continue.
I welcome the statements of solidarity from patriotic citizens and the global community in support of our efforts to stamp out terrorism. I applaud the understanding that in a democracy, such as we are building, people can have differences while sharing worthy values and standing together in opposition to the scourge of terrorism. Nigeria is the only country we have and we must all work to preserve it for present and future generations.
Despite the challenges we face, we must commend our security forces. We must not forget their gallantry and successes in liberating nations and in peacekeeping, from Liberia to Sierra Leone, Congo, Sudan, Mali, Guinea-Bissau and many places in Africa and beyond. Our forces have paid the supreme price in several places at several times.
Today, they face a different challenge, an unconventional war by terrorists. They are adjusting and are being equipped to tackle the new menace of terrorism. We must show confidence in their ability. I have no doubt that, with the support of Nigerians, our neighbours and the international community, we will reinforce our defence, free our girls and rid Nigeria of terrorists.
It is now 45 days since the horrifying abduction of the college girls of Chibok. I share the deep pain and anxiety of their parents and guardians and I assure them once again that government will continue to do everything possible to bring our daughters home.
I am determined to protect our democracy, our national unity and our political stability, by waging a total war against terrorism. The unity and stability of our country, and the protection of lives and property are non-negotiable. I have instructed our security forces to launch a full-scale operation to put an end to the impunity of terrorists on our soil.
I have also authorized the security forces to use any means necessary under the law to ensure that this is done. I assure you that Nigeria will be safe again, and that these thugs will be driven away – it will not happen overnight, but we will spare no effort to achieve this goal.
For our citizens who have joined hands with Al Qaeda and international terrorists in the misguided belief that violence can possibly solve their problems, our doors remain open to them for dialogue and reconciliation, if they renounce terrorism and embrace peace.
My government, while pursuing security measures, will explore all options, including readiness to accept unconditional renunciation of violence by insurgents, and to ensure their de-radicalization, rehabilitation and re-integration into the broader society.
We must remain united to win the war against terrorism. Christians, Moslems, farmers, fishermen, herdsmen, teachers, lawyers, clergy or clerics, the rich, the poor and Nigerians from all sections of the country must work together with our security agencies and armed forces to overcome the terrorists who now threaten all that we hold dear.
The war against terror may be difficult, but the days of peace will come again. Terror is evil; nowhere in history has evil endured forever. The menace of Boko Haram will surely come to an end. I believe that because of your prayers, your courage, hardwork, faith and sacrifice, we will ultimately prevail over the terrorists and all other evil forces.
We are a strong, resilient and courageous people. We will continue to partner with the civilized world, to confront international terrorism and every other challenge that comes our way with patriotic zeal and determination.
Yes, we have challenges but we will surely overcome. Nigeria is our country. Nigeria is blessed. We will all collectively protect, defend and develop this country for ourselves, and our children.
Long live the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
Thank you and God bless Nigeria.”
Signalling is basically an indirect means of transferring information between two or more parties via available communication channels. The ‘agent’ transfers the message, while the ‘principal’ receives, analyzes and acts on it. A most common example in economics involves an individual seeking employment. The individual signals to the employer by constructing a resume replete with skills, expertise, competence and experience that will command attention and intrigue, influencing the employer to schedule an interview subsequently. Every day, individuals engage in varied forms of spoken and unspoken signals to pass across messages to others. Husbands signal to wives and vice-versa, subordinates to bosses, and leaders to followers.
On the 12th of March, 2013, there were reports that the President and Commander-in-Chief of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, requested approval from the Council of State to grant presidential pardon to a list of individuals, including former Governor of Bayelsa State, Diepreye Alamieyeseigha. Now, history has it that Mr. Alamieyeseigha was sworn-in as Governor on May 29, 1999, re-elected in 2003 for a second term, and impeached for corruption related charges on December 9, 2005. According to the BBC, he was initially apprehended in September 2005 as he travelled through London, and subsequently charged to a UK court for money laundering. London Metropolitan police actually found £1m in cash at his London home. He was granted bail in the UK having surrendered his passport. Nonetheless, Governor Alameiyeseigha surfaced quite mysteriously in Bayelsa in December 2005. He unfortunately could not recall details of his miraculous transit from London to Nigeria. Eventually, in 2007, he pleaded guilty to charges of money laundering and false declaration of assets at a Nigerian High Court, and was sentenced to 12 years in prison; 2 years each for the 6 charges, running concurrently, backdated to his first arrest 2 years earlier. Because of the backdating he ended up spending less than a day in prison.
Such is the profile of one of the major purported recipients of the March 2013 presidential pardon. This development really shouldn’t surprise anyone as the president once referred to Alameiyeseigha as his political benefactor. Again, this is rational and understandable because Mr Jonathan served as Deputy Governor to Alameiyeseigha from 1999 to 2005, emerging as Governor after the latter’s impeachment. A benefactor is one who helps develop and bring up another, and as such, there is permissible reason to Jonathan’s description of the ex-governor. No surprise there.
The real issue however is the message emanating from the Jonathan-led government. The agent has signalled the principal. The leader has acted, leaving the followers to hear, see and receive. The masquerade has danced, the village ponders. The gong has been beaten, the subjects mull over the sound. What exactly is this government saying to the people?
A number of possibilities exist – one, it could be a simple gospel type message starting with “He who is without sin should cast the first stone”, and ending with the verdict “Alams, go and sin no more”. Two, maybe it’s the government’s way of demonstrating its Transformation Agenda… changing destinies, transforming ex-convicts. After all, amnesty is granted to militants as part of transformation. Old things have passed away and (by transformation) all things are new. Third, perhaps it’s an obvious signal that a Nigerian can assume an Executive role, commit economic and financial crimes, mysteriously jump bail, spend a day in prison, get released, and assume political relevance again – all it takes is time. Recall that Mr Bode George, who was indicted, convicted and sentenced to prison for fraud, got released in February 2011, to meet much pomp and celebration.
What impressions are being created in the minds of the young generation? That fraud, theft, and economic crimes are frequently embraced by this regime? Or in simple terms, that you can do whatever you want, serve your time ‘creatively’, and emerge eventually as a celebrated personality?
How do teachers in Primary and Secondary Schools teach their students not to steal? How do professors communicate the rudiments of ethical behaviour to their college students? How do you convince the average trader on the streets not to engage in undue opportunistic behaviour in a bid to achieve abnormal profit? How will religious folk, juxtapose the message of ‘sowing and reaping’ with vivid stories of transformed ‘ex-convicts’ around? What are the impacts of such signals on national values, if they still exist?
It would help if there were a commensurate number of corruption cases fully investigated, charged and convicted by the same regime. We however struggle to cite any cogent cases. Little wonder the Opposition considers Jonathan’s government of lacking the capacity to tackle corruption. When people see dark clouds in the sky, it is only reasonable to assume that rain is about to fall. When the orchestra sees the conductor wave his baton, it is time to play. When the entertainer hears the rhythm and kick, it is time to dance. They are only reading the signals.